Climate Change Projections for 2030, 2050, and 2070
AdaptNSW, from the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, has prepared regional climate forecasts for NSW. The forecasts highlight changes in daily temperature, rainfall, and the number of hot days that can be dangerous for human health. These projections examine expected conditions for the near-term - 2030, mid-term - 2050, and long-term - 2070 compared to the baseline year 2000 produced from observed climate data.
Climate change projections summary
Download the PDF version of the infographic(PDF, 96KB)
This infographic represents average climate over the South East and Tablelands region, including the QPRC area and surrounding area to the north and south. Projections in this document should only be used as a guide for our Local Government Area (LGA).
Our region has different weather and climate conditions across its communities, such as those living in farmlands or the various towns. It is important that the projections in this document aren’t used for predicting changes at the town level (e.g. Braidwood vs Queanbeyan). They should instead be used to provide an understanding of climate change in the broader region.
Further analysis of towns within the LGA or other specific areas can be done using AdaptNSW’s interactive climate change projections map.
What are climate projections and how are they produced?
The NSW and Australian Regional Climate Modelling project or NARCliM project produces high-quality regional climate projections using global and regional climate models. The project brings together globally recognised science and multidisciplinary knowledge to provide the best results for NSW. They take weather observations from 1990-2009 to create a baseline climate for the year 2000 and then predicts future climate change by certain years (e.g. 2030) using a 20-year average of climate model projections (e.g. 2030 climate predicted using projections from 2020-2039). Climate models are complex computer simulations that use mathematical and physical calculations to model the Earth’s climate system. The output is detailed projections of climate conditions like average annual rainfall, or the yearly average of daily maximum/minimum temperatures.
Weather Vs Climate
Weather describes variables such as temperature and rainfall that are measured day to day, climate refers to long-term averages of observed weather, or as projections which are typically calculated over 20 years or more. NARCliM predicts future change in climate conditions expected by specific years such as 2030, 2050, or 2070 using 10 years of climate projections either side of the year being considered (e.g. 2020-2039 for 2030, totalling 20 years). Since climate change is calculated as a 20-year average, it does not include the possibility of weather variability that happens on a year-by-year basis or variability occurring throughout the year (frequency and severity of extremes). This short-term variation in weather patterns results from natural variation in climate drivers and climate systems throughout the region (such as El Niño and La Niña) and not from long-term changes in climate, meaning that it is not captured by climate projections. Information relating to Australia’s weather systems and climate influences is available on the climate change section of the CSIRO’s website
More information and further explanation is available in the full report(PDF, 707KB)
If you still have any questions, please email council@qprc.nsw.gov.au or telephone the sustainability team on 1300 735 025.